With US stock markets shut for the weekend, Nvidia’s first price reaction to the investigation into chief executive Jensen Huang came on Hyperliquid perpetual futures and prediction markets, where odds of his exit by year-end jumped from 16% to 35% on Polymarket within hours on Sunday night.
MoneyTurkey Derivatives Desk | 9 November 2026
Key points
- Nvidia perpetual futures on Hyperliquid fell 3.8% in 24 hours to $180.50 by 10:10 p.m. ET Sunday, on $170 million of volume, The Block reported.
- Polymarket’s market on Huang resigning or being removed by 31 December was at 16% late Sunday per The Block, then 35% per Benzinga about an hour later.
- Nvidia’s board has opened an independent inquiry; the company says Huang will continue as CEO without interruption.
What happened
Nvidia said on Sunday its board is investigating Huang’s relationship with Alice Huang, a businesswoman affiliated with Nvidia customer Megaspeed whom US intelligence agencies reportedly suspect of passing information to Beijing, CNBC reported, citing The New York Times and the Financial Times. Megaspeed has been accused of helping restricted Chinese companies acquire Nvidia AI chips.
In an email to staff, Huang admitted to an affair. “I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did,” he wrote. The board said it has “no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised” but will examine all available information.
What the derivatives are pricing
The Hyperliquid contract began sliding around 4 p.m. ET Sunday and touched a low near $178.10 before recovering slightly, according to The Block. Nvidia shares had closed Friday’s regular session 2.78% higher at $186.64, and Benzinga Pro data showed the stock down 4.16% in overnight trading.
Rick Maeda, head of markets at Laevitas, told The Block that with US stock markets shut, these perpetual futures “took the first reaction on thinner liquidity”. Zeus Research analyst Dominick John said deeply negative funding rates suggest short positioning “may be becoming crowded”, leaving room for a relief bounce if the shares stabilise.
On prediction markets, Kalshi’s contract on Huang’s removal before 1 July 2027 was at 35%, Benzinga reported. The Block cited a separate Kalshi market on his departure by 1 January 2028 at 18%. Contracts with different deadlines are not directly comparable.
Why it matters
Perpetual futures on tokenised or synthetic stocks are giving traders a weekend venue to price company news before New York opens. Maeda said the real risks are congressional escalation, tighter scrutiny of China-linked sales or any sign of a leadership change. The US restricts exports of Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips to China.
What to watch
- Nvidia third-quarter earnings on 17 November
- A closed-door briefing with three House Republican committee chairs requested for 18 November
- Findings from the board’s independent inquiry
- Polymarket and Kalshi odds on Huang’s tenure
Related on MoneyTurkey
For information only. Not investment advice.
Sources
- The Block: Nvidia perps slide as market reacts to CEO Jensen Huang’s Chinese spy scandal
- Benzinga via Yahoo Finance: Jensen Huang’s Chinese spy scandal puts Nvidia CEO’s future under scrutiny
- CNBC: Nvidia investigates CEO Jensen Huang’s relationship with alleged Chinese spy
- The New York Times: Original report
