Strong US employment figures lifted bets on a December Fed rate rise and kept bullion pinned just above $4,000 an ounce.
MoneyTurkey Derivatives Desk | 9 November 2026
Key points
- Spot gold slipped 0.1% to $4,065.58 an ounce in early Asian trading on Monday, after falling 0.4% on Friday.
- US job growth surged in October and the unemployment rate edged lower, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December.
- Tuesday’s US consumer price data is the next test for the metal.
Gold held its late-week retreat after strong US jobs data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, Bloomberg reported. Spot gold slipped 0.1% to $4,065.58 an ounce at 7:35 a.m. in Singapore on Monday, after a 0.4% fall on Friday. Tighter policy is a headwind for gold, which pays no interest.
What happened
US job growth surged in October and the unemployment rate edged lower. Separate data showed US consumer sentiment rose in early November to a three-month high. Fed officials will see one more jobs report and a full set of inflation data before their December meeting, where they are expected to raise rates as high energy prices feed through to consumer prices.
Gold rebounded above $4,000 after the US midterm elections, as Treasury yields and oil fell on bets that incoming Democrats would push to end the Iran war and that a divided government would limit further spending and borrowing. It is still down about a fifth since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, according to Bloomberg.
What the futures and options market is pricing
The rate market is doing the work: the December hike is now the base case, so Tuesday’s consumer price index is the event that can move it. A hot reading would firm hike bets and lift yields, a headwind for bullion; a soft one would give gold room to rally. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4% in the previous session.
Kitco reported that trend-following funds drove last week’s forced break below $3,970, led by weakness in silver, followed by short covering as prices recovered and oil fell after the election. Kitco’s analysis treats $4,000 as the key pivot, with a move back below it risking a fresh wave of selling.
Why it matters
“Gold’s post-midterm rollercoaster has brought its two competing forces into sharp focus: its safe-haven appeal remains intact, but the dollar continues to keep a tight lid on its upside,” said Hebe Chen, market analyst at Vantage Global Prime, according to Bloomberg. “The CPI report will be the next battleground,” she said.
Silver fell 0.2% to $51.81, while platinum and palladium edged higher in early Asian trading.
What to watch
- Tuesday’s US consumer price index release
- The next US jobs report before the December Fed meeting
- Whether gold holds $4,000 an ounce
- Moves in the dollar against bullion
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For information only. Not investment advice.
Sources
- Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-08/gold-holds-decline-as-us-jobs-data-fan-december-rate-hike-bets
- Yahoo Finance: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-holds-decline-us-jobs-234010998.html
- Kitco: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-06/gold-price-holds-critical-4000-support-strong-us-jobs-data-and-inflation
