Spot premiums hit record highs as smelters cut output and traders scramble for immediate metal.
MoneyTurkey Commodities Desk | 9 November 2026
Key points
- Shanghai spot copper premium jumped to 2,615 yuan (~$389) a tonne, the highest on record, according to Shanghai Metals Market.
- Deliverable stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 33,848 tonnes, near a multi-year low, covering less than one day of Chinese consumption.
- Yangshan import premium rose to a record $230 a tonne on Monday, according to Reuters.
Copper buyers in China are competing aggressively for physical metal as domestic smelters cut output and overseas supplies remain limited. Spot premiums in Shanghai have tripled in two weeks to 2,615 yuan (~$389) a tonne, the highest level on record, according to Shanghai Metals Market data. The Yangshan premium for imported copper has also reached a record. Traders report that fabricators are buying hand to mouth.
What happened
Trafigura has approached producers and traders across Asia seeking large volumes of copper for November and December delivery, according to Bloomberg. The Singapore-based firm is willing to outbid competitors to secure cargoes, pushing regional spot premiums higher.
In Shanghai, the premium for immediately available cathode has reached 2,615 yuan a tonne over futures, triple the level of two weeks earlier. Premiums for imported copper tracked by Fastmarkets have risen more than 40 percent to $195–210 a tonne, their highest since records began in 2017. The Yangshan copper premium rose to a record $230 a tonne on Monday, according to Reuters.
Deliverable stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have fallen to 33,848 tonnes. That volume would cover less than one day of Chinese copper consumption. The exchange last recorded comparable lows in 2022.
What is driving prices
Chinese smelters have reduced refined output after struggling to secure sufficient feedstock, including copper concentrates and scrap. Morgan Stanley metals strategist Amy Gower told Bloomberg that the slowdown in refined production growth is the main driver of the current tightness.
Exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China’s largest source of imported refined copper, have been disrupted. Earlier this month Congolese authorities seized several thousand tonnes of copper and cobalt during raids on illegal mining operations and Chinese-African processing plants.
Inventories in China have fallen throughout the year as international miners and traders prioritised shipments to the United States amid uncertainty over potential import tariffs. December contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been trading at a steep premium to January, reflecting the scramble for prompt metal.
Why it matters
China accounts for nearly 60 percent of global copper consumption. The shortage of immediately available metal is forcing buyers to pay record premiums even as underlying demand indicators remain subdued.
The surge in Chinese spot premiums has made it theoretically profitable to ship copper from US stockpiles back to China. Traders have so far held those inventories in anticipation of higher returns if US tariffs are introduced.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7 percent to $13,869 a tonne by 10:30 GMT on Monday, according to Reuters.
What to watch
- Shanghai Futures Exchange deliverable stocks and daily withdrawals
- Yangshan import premium and arbitrage window to the US
- Smelter utilisation rates and concentrate arrivals
- Policy signals on US tariffs and Democratic Republic of the Congo export controls
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For information only. Not investment advice.
Sources
- Mining.com.au: https://mining.com.au/trafigura-targets-copper-supplies-as-china-squeeze-deepens/
- Bloomberg (via Mining.com.au): Trafigura Asian buying; Amy Gower comments; Shanghai Metals Market premium and stocks
- Shanghai Metals Market: Shanghai spot premium average 2,615 yuan/tonne (6 November 2026)
- Reuters (via Business Recorder): LME three-month copper $13,869; Yangshan premium $230 (9 November 2026)
- The Edge Malaysia: https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/824630 (earlier squeeze context)
