Oil eased on Monday after President Donald Trump said new US strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” while talks progress, as a Bloomberg survey showed OPEC supply recovering fast.
MoneyTurkey Commodities Desk | 9 November 2026
Key points
- Brent fell 1.5% to $96.91 a barrel by 06:29 GMT on Monday, and West Texas Intermediate fell 1% to $89.85, Reuters reported.
- Brent fell 16% last week, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
- OPEC crude output rose 930,000 barrels a day in October to 22.8 million barrels a day, according to a Bloomberg survey, led by Saudi Arabia.
Oil prices fell on Monday after Trump played down the chance of fresh US strikes on Iran, though attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns in focus. Brent fell 1.5% to $96.91 a barrel by 06:29 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 1% to $89.85, according to Reuters.
What happened
“It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” Trump told CNN in a phone interview, according to CNBC. “The answer is, highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary.” Trump had hinted at renewing attacks on Iran after last week’s US midterm elections, but there has been no sign of a large-scale US military operation, and Iran has said it would respond by striking US and Israeli targets, Reuters reported. Both countries reported that shipping had been hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
Prices had swung in early Asian trading, with Brent briefly edging up to $98.35 by 04:27 GMT before turning lower, according to Reuters.
What is driving prices
Supply is coming back. OPEC output of 22.8 million barrels a day in October equals roughly 88% of what the same members pumped in February, Bloomberg’s survey showed. Saudi Arabia raised production by 970,000 barrels a day to 9.2 million, still about 800,000 barrels a day below rates at the start of the year, and its exports averaged 7 million barrels a day, approaching pre-war levels, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said the company aims to “maximize production in the fourth quarter.”
Iraq raised output by 140,000 barrels a day to 4.15 million, and Kuwait by 130,000 to 2 million. Iran’s output fell 120,000 barrels a day to 1.9 million, the lowest in Bloomberg’s monthly data going back to 1989, under a US naval blockade of its ports. JPMorgan said on Friday that oil is heading for a glut again, estimating a surplus of 1.1 million barrels a day in September widening to 1.4 million in October, Reuters reported.
Why it matters
The risk premium has not gone away. “The market appears to be pricing in a relatively optimistic scenario of de-escalation, even though a comprehensive agreement between Washington and Tehran has yet to materialise,” Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi research firm SS WealthStreet, told Reuters. She sees near-term support for Brent at $93 a barrel unless shipping through Hormuz returns to normal.
What to watch
- Progress in US-Iran talks and any change in Trump’s stance on strikes
- Shipping incidents and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
- Whether Brent holds $93 a barrel
- November OPEC output as Saudi Arabia pushes production higher
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For information only. Not investment advice.
Sources
- Reuters via Euronext: https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-steadies-after-trump-signals-restraint-iran-hormuz-risks-persist
- Reuters via TimesLIVE: https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/world/2026-11-09-oil-falls-as-trump-signals-restraint-on-iran-amid-fresh-hormuz-shipping-attacks/
- CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/09/oil-falls-as-trump-says-new-iran-attacks-unlikely.html
- Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-06/opec-output-neared-pre-war-levels-on-saudi-rebound-survey-shows
- Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/survey_shows_opec_output_neared_prewar_levels-07-nov-2026-185030-article/
