Comex December gold futures climbed about 1.8% to $4,147.30 an ounce on Thursday as Brent stayed near $96 after Wednesday’s nearly 9% plunge, and traders priced a softer inflation path into rate odds ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.
MoneyTurkey Derivatives Desk | 5 November 2026
Key points
- Comex December gold (GC) traded near $4,147.30, up about 1.8% on the session (Yahoo Finance, ~11:35 London), after spot gold earlier printed a two-week high of $4,146.63 and held near $4,136.
- Brent crude futures were around $96.15 after diving nearly 9% on Wednesday — still below $100 — easing inflation pressure that had kept rate-hike odds elevated.
- CME FedWatch implied roughly an 81% chance of a December Fed hike as of Thursday morning; higher-for-longer rates still cap how far non-yielding bullion can run.
Gold futures extended the post-US midterm rebound on Thursday. A weaker dollar and softer Treasury yields after Democratic gains combined with the oil slide to push speculative shorts to cover. The move sits on the derivatives tape — Comex GC, rate futures and crude — more than on a simple spot headline.
What happened
Spot gold earlier gained about 1.7% to $4,130.27 an ounce after a session high of $4,146.63, the highest since 20 October (CNBC/Reuters morning tape). By late London morning, spot held near $4,136 while Comex December futures traded near $4,147.30, up roughly 1.8% from the prior settlement near $4,073. The metal jumped nearly 3.4% on Wednesday — its sharpest daily rise since 19 August — and is up more than $250 this week from a one-year low of $3,869.85 hit on Friday.
Brent was near $96.15 after Wednesday’s collapse below $100 on hopes that a Democratic Congress could curb further escalation in the Iran war. The US dollar and Treasury yields were at multi-week lows; the 10-year yield traded near 4.89% Thursday after printing closer to 4.95% on the prior close. Lower energy prices trim inflation concerns and reduce the case for higher-for-longer rates, while a softer dollar makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Some of Wednesday’s selling pressure on the dollar, yields and oil eased into Thursday’s European session, which should keep runaway upside in gold in check. Oil is still well above pre-war levels, so a hawkish Fed path remains the main hurdle for bullion.
What the futures market is pricing
Rate futures still lean hawkish into December. CME FedWatch put the odds of a December hike near 81% on Thursday morning (vs roughly 19% for a hold), after prints in the high-70s to low-80s earlier in the week. That keeps the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold elevated even as the oil-led inflation scare cools.
On the daily chart, XAU/USD has repaired from last week’s lows but still sits under the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The 21-day SMA near $4,077 is the first support under the bounce; clustered resistance sits near $4,203–$4,206 (100-day / 50-day). A sustained close above that band would be needed to ease the broader bearish bias; the 200-day near $4,468 remains the heavier ceiling.
Why it matters
Precious metals are among the clearer post-election winners on the futures board. Falling energy prices, softer yields and a weaker dollar forced recently built speculative shorts to cover — the same channel that lifted Comex GC through $4,140. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen called the mix “powerful” for metals after the midterms.
Desks now watch Friday’s US non-farm payrolls for the next reprice of Fed path odds. Initial jobless claims are also due Thursday. Separately, the Bank of England is widely expected to raise rates for the first time in three years at its noon London decision — a path already taken by its main peers — which keeps global real-rate pressure in view even as US oil-linked inflation risks cool.
What to watch
- Friday US non-farm payrolls and Thursday initial claims
- CME FedWatch December hike odds vs the ~81% Thursday morning print
- Brent holding below $100 after the midweek plunge
- Comex GC / XAU daily closes vs the $4,200 SMA cluster
- Bank of England noon decision (see MoneyTurkey BoE preview)
Related on MoneyTurkey
- Gold Rallies as Dollar and Yields Soften After US Midterms
- BoE Poised to Hike to 4% as Iran Oil Pushes UK Inflation to 3.5%
- Gilt Yields Hit Lowest Since August Ahead of BoE Hike
For information only. Not investment advice.
