Fed Governor Christopher Waller told a London audience on Tuesday he leans toward a quarter-point hike in December, and that a hot October CPI print at 13:30 UK time should put a half-point move on the table.
Coverage ended. MoneyTurkey Bonds Desk | Last updated 10 Nov 2026, 21:04 GMT. First published 11:12 GMT.
Updates (London time)
21:04 GMT: Stocks close lower after hot CPI; our live coverage ends
Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday after October consumer prices rose 0.4%, faster than the 0.3% forecast, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point hike should be considered in December. Losses were deepest in the early evening London time and narrowed into the close. The Nasdaq Composite ended down 0.7% at 25,065.87, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,520.93 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 160 points, or 0.3%, to 52,231.89. The 10-year Treasury yield, which topped 5% during the session, was near 4.99% after the stock market close, up more than 10 basis points from Monday.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (closing prices at 21:00 GMT; Treasury yield as of 21:02 GMT).
Our live coverage is coming to an end.
20:26 GMT: Nasdaq trims loss to 0.8% in final hour
- At 20:26 GMT the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.8%, the S&P 500 was down about 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 190 points, or 0.4%, against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was just under 5%, up about 12 basis points from Monday.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (20:26 GMT).
20:03 GMT: Stocks slip back, 10-year yield holds near 5%
- At 20:03 GMT the Nasdaq Composite was down more than 1.1%, the S&P 500 was down 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 200 points, or 0.4%, against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.99%, up about 12 basis points from Monday.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (20:03 GMT).
19:32 GMT: Nasdaq loss narrows to 1%, 10-year yield just under 5%
- At 19:32 GMT the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.0%, the S&P 500 was down about 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 180 points against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was just under 5%, up about 13 basis points from Monday.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (19:32 GMT).
19:04 GMT: Stocks pare losses as 10-year yield eases to about 5%
- At 19:04 GMT the Nasdaq Composite was down more than 1.1%, the S&P 500 was down 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 220 points, or 0.4%, against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5%, still up more than 13 basis points from Monday.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (19:04 GMT).
18:33 GMT: Nasdaq trims loss, 10-year yield still above 5%
- At 18:32 GMT the Nasdaq Composite was down about 1.3%, the S&P 500 was down nearly 0.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 280 points against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was still just above 5%.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (18:32 GMT).
18:06 GMT: Nasdaq down 1.4% as 10-year yield holds above 5%
- At 18:06 GMT the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.4%, the S&P 500 was down 0.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 295 points, or 0.6%, against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield held just above 5% at 18:06 GMT.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (18:06 GMT).
17:32 GMT: 10-year yield holds above 5%, stocks steady lower
- The 10-year Treasury yield was at 5.02% at 17:32 GMT, up about 15 basis points from Monday.
- At 17:32 GMT the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.2%, the S&P 500 was down 0.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 275 points, or 0.5%, against Monday’s close.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (17:32 GMT).
17:03 GMT: Nasdaq falls more than 1%, 10-year above 5%
- At 17:03 GMT the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.3%, the S&P 500 was down 0.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 339 points, or 0.65%, against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was at 5.01%, up about 15 basis points from Monday, according to CNBC at 17:03 GMT.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (17:03 GMT).
16:30 GMT: 10-year yield nears 5%, stocks stay lower
- The 10-year Treasury yield was near 5% at 16:29 GMT, up about 14 basis points from Monday, according to CNBC.
- At 16:29 GMT the S&P 500 was down 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 318 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.9%, against Monday’s close.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (16:29 GMT).
16:01 GMT: Losses deepen, Nasdaq down 0.8%
- US stocks extended their declines. At 16:01 GMT the S&P 500 was down 0.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 311 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.8%, against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.99%, up about 13 basis points from Monday, according to CNBC at 16:01 GMT.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (16:01 GMT).
15:33 GMT: Stocks slip back, 10-year holds near 4.99%
- US stocks gave back their earlier recovery. At 15:32 GMT the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 211 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2%, against Monday’s close.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.99% at 15:32 GMT, up about 13 basis points from Monday.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (15:32 GMT).
15:04 GMT: Stocks pare opening losses, yields climb
- US stocks recovered most of their early losses. At 15:04 GMT the S&P 500 was down 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 150 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite was roughly flat, against Monday’s close.
- Treasury yields kept rising. The 10-year yield was near 4.99% at 15:04 GMT, up about 12 basis points from Monday.
- Sources: CNBC and Yahoo Finance quote pages (15:04 GMT).
14:36 GMT: Wall Street opens lower, tech leads losses
- US stocks opened lower. At the open, the S&P 500 was down 0.49%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 227 points, or 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.81%, according to official opening prints versus Monday’s close on Yahoo Finance and CNBC.
- Chipmakers led the declines: Micron Technology and Marvell Technology fell 3%, Intel lost 2% and Qualcomm more than 1%, while Nvidia was down more than 3%, according to CNBC.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was up more than 8 basis points at 4.95% shortly after 14:00 GMT, CNBC said.
- Before the open, Reuters, citing LSEG data, said traders were fully pricing a December rate hike, with two 25-basis-point increases priced by March.
- Sources: Yahoo Finance and CNBC (official opening prints versus Monday’s close); CNBC (markets live blog, chipmakers; Michelle Fox, Treasury yields, shortly after 14:00 GMT); Reuters, citing LSEG data (post-CPI, before the open).
14:02 GMT: Nasdaq-100 futures extend losses after hot CPI
- Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.1% and S&P 500 futures down 0.6% at 13:50 GMT, while Dow Jones futures had slipped 0.1% into negative territory, Investing.com reported. US stocks open at 14:30 GMT.
- US crude oil futures slid to around $85 a barrel, near their lowest level since late August, Investor’s Business Daily reported (updated 13:48 GMT).
- CNBC’s latest Treasury figures, updated shortly before 14:00 GMT, still showed the two-year yield near 4.7% and the 10-year up more than 7 basis points at 4.938%.
- Sources: Investing.com (Anuron Mitra, updated 13:51 GMT); Investor’s Business Daily (Jed Graham, live coverage updated 13:48 GMT); CNBC (Treasury yields, updated shortly before 14:00 GMT).
13:42 GMT: October CPI rises 0.4%, hotter than expected
- The US consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October, after a 0.6% increase in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported at 13:30 GMT. That was above the 0.3% gain economists polled by Dow Jones had expected, CNBC reported.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% — the same as in September and August, and above the 0.2% forecast. The BLS did not publish year-on-year figures for most series because October 2025 data were not collected during last year’s government shutdown. CNBC and FXStreet confirmed both monthly prints and the missing annual rates.
- Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly all-items increase. Food rose 0.5%, energy 0.7% and gasoline 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis (gasoline fell 0.7% before seasonal adjustment). Used cars and trucks fell 1.2% (BLS).
- The hotter-than-forecast print is the condition Fed Governor Christopher Waller set this morning for considering a half-point December hike. A sourced post-print CME FedWatch probability for a 50 basis-point move was not yet available.
- Treasury yields jumped after the data, CNBC reported: the 10-year yield was up more than 7 basis points at 4.938%, the two-year was near 4.7%, and the 30-year up more than 3 basis points at 5.29% (as of about 13:37 GMT). The US dollar index was up 0.3% on the day at 102.00, FXStreet said after the print. S&P 500 futures were down 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.2%, with Dow Jones futures around the flatline, according to CNBC’s market blog (as of about 13:37 GMT). US stocks had not yet opened.
- Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Summary, 10 Nov 2026 (USDL-26-1685); CNBC (Jeff Cox, CPI report, published 13:31 GMT and updated about 13:33 GMT; Sean Conlon and Natalie Feary, Treasury yields, updated about 13:37 GMT; market blog, updated about 13:37 GMT); FXStreet, after the 13:30 GMT print.
Key points
- Waller is leaning toward a 25 bp rise at the December FOMC meeting even if October inflation improves
- If CPI comes in hotter than expected, he says a 50 bp hike “should be considered”
- Before the CPI print, CME FedWatch put the odds of a December hike to 4.00-4.25% at 84.4%, against 15.6% for a hold
- The two-year Treasury yield sits near 4.5%, above the top of the current 3.75-4.00% range
What Waller said
“Inflation is too high … even if, as I expect, the monthly rate of inflation improves in October, I am leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points at the FOMC’s December meeting,” Waller said, Yahoo Finance reported. On a hotter print: “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”
“Let’s just say it: September’s inflation data were bad. There was no silver lining,” he said. He flagged the breadth of price rises, fast-rising prices for high-tech goods tied to the AI build-out, and energy costs he expects to stay high, partly because of higher insurance rates for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
What is priced
Hike odds were about 77% after the October jobs report, which showed 165,000 new jobs against a 65,000 forecast and unemployment at 4.1%, and climbed to 84% on Tuesday, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Yahoo Finance. The Fed held at 3.75-4.00% on 28 October, with two officials dissenting in favour of a hike.
Futures price about 50 basis points of hikes through December 2027 and no chance of a cut. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.9% on Monday even as the S&P 500 rose 2.35% and oil fell on a reported US-Iran deal on Hormuz transit.
Why it matters
October CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% on the month, down from 0.6% in September, with core seen at 0.2% after 0.3%. With a hike already mostly priced, the print now decides between 25 and 50 basis points for at least one Fed governor, and that is what the front end of the Treasury curve will trade.
What to watch
- October CPI at 13:30 UK time (08:30 New York) today
- Whether FedWatch starts pricing a 50 bp December move after the print
- The two-year Treasury yield around 4.5%
Related on MoneyTurkey
- Treasury Yields Rise on Strong Jobs Data
- Fed’s Daly says more rate hikes likely, keeping December in play for Treasuries
For information only. Not investment advice.
