China’s exports jumped 35.2% in October from a year earlier, beating forecasts and pushing the country’s trade surplus past $1 trillion for the second year running.
MoneyTurkey Economics Desk | 10 November 2026
Key points
- Exports rose 35.2% to $412.3 billion, above the 33.6% average forecast in a Caixin survey of 11 institutions. Imports rose 41.6% to $307.1 billion.
- The January to October surplus reached $1.04 trillion, putting China on track to beat last year’s record of $1.2 trillion.
- Caixin reported that much of the export growth came from higher prices rather than bigger shipment volumes.
What happened
Customs data released on Tuesday showed exports of $412.3 billion in October, with growth easing 1.1 percentage points from September. Imports rose faster than any forecast in the Caixin survey, which had put the average at 31.6%. Part of the jump came from a recovery in crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, AP reported.
Stronger imports narrowed the monthly surplus to $105.3 billion, from $133.5 billion in September. Even so, the ten-month total of $1.04 trillion keeps China on course for another record year.
What drove it
High-tech goods led again. Semiconductor exports rose 137.1% by value from a year earlier, and auto exports rose 37.6%. Caixin linked the strength to AI-related trade, but said rising prices, not volumes, did much of the work, a detail that is easy to miss behind the headline growth rate.
By destination, exports to the United States rose 32.9% in October from a year earlier, from a low base after last year’s tariffs. Exports to the European Union rose 24.3% in October and 17.2% over the first ten months. For January to October, China’s surplus was about $266.5 billion with the United States and more than $310 billion with the EU.
Why it matters
Exports are offsetting weak demand at home. Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, told AP that overcapacity, high household savings and weak domestic demand keep pushing Chinese goods abroad, and that this is not sustainable. Dave Chia of Moody’s Analytics expects exports to stay strong for the rest of the year, led by electronics and autos, but warned that a slowdown or correction in the AI boom would hit chip and electronics shipments hard.
Trade is expected to be high on the agenda when President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen. A two-month trade truce runs until January. Nguyen Hoang Nam of Capital Economics noted that EU trade measures cover only a small part of China’s exports.
What to watch
- The Trump and Xi meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next week
- Whether export prices keep rising faster than volumes
- Any new EU or US trade measures before the truce ends in January
- November trade data, due in December
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For information only. Not investment advice.
Sources
- AP, via Daily Sabah: China trade surplus tops $1 trillion for second straight year
- Caixin Global: China’s Exports Jump on Strong AI Trade
