Hedge funds hold a net short position in corn for the first time since late June, leaving soybeans as the market more exposed to a surprise in Tuesday’s USDA numbers.
MoneyTurkey Commodities Desk | 9 November 2026
Key points
- Managed money turned net short corn futures and options as of 3 November, after selling 453,962 contracts from September’s record net long (Pro Farmer)
- Funds still held a net long of 132,799 soybean contracts and a net short of about 88,000 in Chicago wheat
- USDA puts the corn harvest at 81% done, behind the 86% five-year average; soybeans are 92% done, just ahead of the 91% average
The US Department of Agriculture publishes its November Crop Production and WASDE supply-and-demand reports on Tuesday. Going in, money managers have flipped to a net short in corn, according to the Commitments of Traders data analysed by Pro Farmer. Since the early-September peak, December corn futures have fallen more than a dollar a bushel as fund selling met commercial hedging.
Bloomberg reported that corn hit a fresh four-month low on Monday on expectations that USDA will raise its world supply estimates. Front-month corn settled at $4.3875 a bushel, down 0.6%, Yahoo Finance data show. Soybeans slipped 0.2% to $11.87 and wheat fell 0.6% to $5.875.
Why soybeans carry more risk
Fund length in soybeans has been roughly halved since September, but it is still large. Pre-report estimates lean towards a modest yield increase and higher ending stocks, with an unusually wide range, Pro Farmer said. A bigger-than-expected production boost could fuel more fund selling in soybeans and drag corn down with them. In corn, the net short leaves less forced selling and room for short covering if the numbers are friendly.
Harvest on the ground
Weather kept farmers out of fields in parts of the Midwest and Plains last week, Brownfield reported. Growers in Nebraska, Minnesota and northeast Missouri are reporting strong corn yields even where harvest is running late.
What to watch
- USDA Crop Production and WASDE on Tuesday
- US CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 London time
- US, Ukraine and Russia talks in Abu Dhabi from Tuesday, which could move wheat (our report)
- China’s tone after officials renewed complaints about reciprocal tariffs
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