By MoneyTurkey editors | Updated 4 November 2026, 17:10 London — first published 3 November 2026
Last updated: 17:10 London — Oil slides 8% as Vance blames the Iran war; Dow up 1,500. Earlier Brent figure corrected.
The midterms night live desk is closed. Democrats have taken both chambers; markets are now pricing the size of that win — overnight risk-off in tech and Korea, then a Wednesday futures bounce — and the AI buildout risk after Democrats won the Texas governor’s race on a tougher data-centre line. This page keeps the overnight tape and adds the day-after read. For race-by-race returns, rely on official state offices and the major decision desks. All times are London (GMT).
For the set-up piece: Wall Street prices a blue wave. The tail risk is a red hold.
For the editorial: They Priced the Blue Wave. They Missed the Size.
Key points
- It’s called: Democrats win both the House and the Senate. Decision Desk HQ, NBC and ABC project full Democratic control; NPR/AP called the Senate when Josh Turek (D) beat Ashley Hinson in Iowa. NBC’s House estimate is about 255 Democratic seats, which could be the biggest majority in nearly two decades.
- Collins concedes in Maine to Jackson (D); Talarico (D) projected to beat Paxton in Texas; Annie Andrews (D) projected to win in South Carolina. ABC’s Senate count: 52 D, 42 R, six Democratic gains. Trump says he will accept the results (NYT via Bloomberg).
- Day-after cash open: Dow +2.1% (more than 1,000 points), S&P 500 +1.1%, Nasdaq Composite +1% at 14:38 London (Yahoo Finance). Overnight, S&P 500 futures had fallen 1.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures 2.3% before the rebound (Bloomberg). By 16:57 London the Dow was up 2.9% as Brent fell about 8% to $95.41 (CNBC).
- Treasuries bid, dollar down: 10-year yield −6 bp to 4.90%, five-year down as much as 9 bp to 4.68%; Swiss franc +0.7%, yen +0.6%, euro +0.4% (Bloomberg). Dollar index 101.34, −0.37% (Reuters).
- Asia hit hardest in Korea: KOSPI −3.9% after trading up as much as 3.2% earlier; MSCI Asia Pacific −2%; Bitcoin −1.6% (Bloomberg).
Latest snapshot (London time)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Time (London) | ~17:10 |
| Dow / S&P 500 / Nasdaq Composite | +2.9% / +1.7% / +1.9% (CNBC, 16:57 London) |
| Overnight S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100 futures (low) | −1.3% / −2.3% (Bloomberg) |
| US 10-year yield | ~4.95%, little changed (low 4.89% overnight) (Reuters) |
| Dollar | −0.5% vs major-currency basket |
| Spot gold | ~$4,036 (+~2.7%) (Reuters) |
| Brent crude | ~$95.4 (−~8%) (CNBC, 16:43 London) |
| FTSE 100 | 10,845 (+~2%) |
| House | Democrats projected (NBC ~255 seats) |
| Senate | Democrats projected (ABC 52 D – 42 R so far) |
| Note | Day-after rebound; overnight risk-off stays in the timeline |
Markets source: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Guardian (ex-Brent).
Timeline
Newest update first.
17:10 London — Oil slides 8% as Vance blames the Iran war; Dow up 1,500
Oil broke sharply lower after Vice President JD Vance said on social media that “the reason we lost is the war.” Brent crude was down nearly 8% at $95.41 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate was down 7% at $89.40 at 16:43 London (CNBC). Brent settled at $103.60 on Tuesday. Traders are betting that a Democratic Congress pushes the White House toward a deal with Iran; President Trump told the Financial Times he has no immediate plans to strike. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides remain far from an agreement, so the drop rests on politics, not a signed deal. Cheaper oil fed the stock rally: the Dow was up 1,514 points, or 2.9%, with the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.9% at 16:57 London (CNBC). Apple and Microsoft were up about 6% and Amazon 7%, while the AI build-out trade kept falling, with CoreWeave down more than 7%. Energy was the weakest sector (Reuters). What to watch: whether Brent holds below $100 into the settlement, and any word from Washington or Tehran on talks.
15:10 London — Wall Street opens sharply higher; gold, gilts and the pound join in
US stocks reversed the overnight slide at the cash open. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.1%, more than 1,000 points, with the S&P 500 up 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1% at 14:38 London (Yahoo Finance). The rally skipped the AI chips: Nvidia and Micron were down more than 1% as investors priced curbs on data-centre building. Spot gold was up about 2.9% at $4,041 an ounce, the dollar was 0.5% weaker against a basket of major currencies, the US 10-year yield was down about 5 basis points at 4.91% and Brent crude was down about 3% at $100.40 a barrel at 14:17 London (Reuters). In London the FTSE 100 gained 207 points, almost 2%, to 10,845; defence lagged on both sides of the Atlantic as Congress is expected to push back on the Pentagon budget, with BAE Systems down nearly 2% after losing almost 6% earlier (The Guardian). Sterling touched a seven-week high near $1.35 ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision.
14:15 London — day after: futures rebound, AI and Texas bite
US equity futures turned higher into the London afternoon after the overnight slide: S&P futures around +1% and Nasdaq-100 futures about +0.5% (CNBC; AP). Treasuries stayed bid, with the 10-year near 4.92%. AI-linked names and Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Tesla were still soft after Democrats swept Congress and Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governorship on a harder line on data centres — Wells Fargo has put about 27% of planned US data-centre gigawatts in Texas. Trump said he would accept the results.
06:05 London — Democrats take Congress; Nasdaq futures −2.3%
The networks have called it: Democrats will control both the House and the Senate, with NBC estimating about 255 House seats. Susan Collins conceded Maine, and Texas and South Carolina went Democratic. Markets read the size of the win as a check on AI and Big Tech, not just on fiscal policy. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 2.3% and S&P futures 1.3%, the 10-year yield dropped to 4.90%, and the KOSPI tumbled 3.9% after an early rally.
03:05 London — sweep priced, Nasdaq futures −1.8%
Democratic leads in Texas and Ohio, on top of Cooper’s flip in North Carolina, pushed prediction-market Senate odds for Democrats to about 98%. That turned a quiet fade into a proper risk-off move: S&P 500 futures fell about 1% and Nasdaq-100 futures 1.8%, the 10-year yield dropped 7 bp to 4.89% and the dollar weakened across the G10. Nikkei futures fell 3.7% as Japan reopened. No network has called either chamber.
01:05 London — odds firm, futures fade
First counts pushed prediction-market Senate odds for Democrats to about 88% and House odds near 98%. S&P 500 futures turned from +0.2% to −0.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures to −0.3% as traders weighed a Democratic sweep’s risk to the AI trade. AP’s only Senate call so far is a Democratic hold in Virginia; Maine has closed with no votes in.
Pre-results — 19:15 London
Live page open. Markets still on the pre-vote set-up: a blue-wave path priced as base case, Republican hold as the tail. First poll closes at 23:00 London; baseline snapshot then.
Archive — how to read election night
Early counts will probably lean Republican nationally. Fast-counting, right-leaning states such as Florida report first. An Axios analysis of AP and Edison data found that in every national election since 2018, House and Senate votes counted by 9pm ET (02:00 London) were 4–9 points more Republican than the final result, and the national House count was still 2–3 points too Republican at 6am ET (11:00 London) as the West Coast kept counting (Axios).
But individual states can mislead in either direction. Where early and mail votes are counted first, Democrats may lead early and fade — a “blue mirage” the New York Times flags for several Senate battlegrounds (NYT). Do not read a market move off a single partial count.
The Senate may take days. Maine and Alaska count slowly; if either decides control, a call could slip well beyond Wednesday (NBC News). AP has not called House control until seven or eight days after polling day in each of the past three elections (Axios).
Alaska’s ranked-choice count is on 18 November. Election-night totals show first preferences only; the Division of Elections will not run the ranked-choice tabulation until 18 November, with certification targeted for 25 November (Alaska Division of Elections; Alaska Public Media).
Poll closes, London time: 23:00 parts of Indiana and Kentucky; 00:00 Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, most of Florida; 00:30 North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia; 01:00 big wave incl. Pennsylvania, Maine, most of Michigan and Texas; 02:00 incl. Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York; 03:00 Nevada, Montana, Utah; 04:00 California, Oregon, Washington; 05:00 Hawaii and most of Alaska; 06:00 Aleutian Islands, the last polls (CBS News; Election Central; Axios).
For deeper dive → They Priced the Blue Wave. They Missed the Size.
For deeper dive → Wall Street prices a blue wave. The tail risk is a red hold.
MoneyTurkey’s live coverage is for information only and is not investment advice. Prediction-market odds are prices, not forecasts, and can move sharply on partial counts.
