By MoneyTurkey editors | Live — first published 3 November 2026
Last updated: 19:15 London time — pre-results
This is a rolling markets desk for US midterms night. We track how US equity futures, Treasury yields, the dollar, bitcoin and Kalshi prediction-market odds react as polls close and key races are called. It is not a full results wire: for race-by-race returns, rely on official state election offices and the major decision desks. All times are London time (GMT); US Eastern Time is five hours behind tonight.
For the set-up — why Wall Street went into the vote priced for a blue wave and why a Republican hold is the tail risk — read our preview: Wall Street prices a blue wave. The tail risk is a red hold.
Key points
- Polls still open across most of the US; no chamber-control calls yet.
- First closes at 23:00 London (parts of Indiana and Kentucky) — that is when we lock the futures, yields and Kalshi baseline.
- Kalshi House and Senate odds will be refreshed from 22:30 and with each Timeline update.
How to read tonight
Early counts will probably lean Republican nationally. Fast-counting, right-leaning states such as Florida report first. An Axios analysis of AP and Edison data found that in every national election since 2018, House and Senate votes counted by 9pm ET (02:00 London) were 4–9 points more Republican than the final result, and the national House count was still 2–3 points too Republican at 6am ET (11:00 London) as the West Coast kept counting (Axios).
But individual states can mislead in either direction. Where early and mail votes are counted first, Democrats may lead early and fade — a “blue mirage” the New York Times flags for several Senate battlegrounds (NYT). Do not read a market move off a single partial count.
The Senate may take days. Maine and Alaska count slowly; if either decides control, a call could slip well beyond Wednesday (NBC News). AP has not called House control until seven or eight days after polling day in each of the past three elections (Axios).
Alaska’s ranked-choice count is on 18 November. Election-night totals show first preferences only; the Division of Elections will not run the ranked-choice tabulation until 18 November, with certification targeted for 25 November (Alaska Division of Elections; Alaska Public Media).
Poll closes, London time: 23:00 parts of Indiana and Kentucky; 00:00 Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, most of Florida; 00:30 North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia; 01:00 big wave incl. Pennsylvania, Maine, most of Michigan and Texas; 02:00 incl. Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York; 03:00 Nevada, Montana, Utah; 04:00 California, Oregon, Washington; 05:00 Hawaii and most of Alaska; 06:00 Aleutian Islands, the last polls (CBS News; Election Central; Axios).
Latest snapshot (London time)
Levels will be filled at the 23:00 London baseline.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Time (London) | — |
| S&P 500 futures (ES) | — |
| Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) | — |
| US 10-year yield | — |
| DXY / USD/JPY | — |
| VIX futures (front month) | — |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | — |
| Kalshi — House control | — |
| Kalshi — Senate control | — |
Timeline
Newest update first.
Pre-results — 19:15 London
Live page open. Markets still on the pre-vote set-up: a blue-wave path priced as base case, Republican hold as the tail. First poll closes at 23:00 London; baseline snapshot then.
MoneyTurkey’s live coverage is for information only and is not investment advice. Prediction-market odds are prices, not forecasts, and can move sharply on partial counts.
