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00:45 GMT · Markets wrap ›

Quick Wrap: Peso warning, Indonesia index risk, Turkey rates

MoneyTurkey editors
MoneyTurkey Foreign Markets Quick Wrap card, 5 Nov 2026. Cream/ink three-country tiles. Mexico: JPMorgan 3 Nov conditional ~19.50 MXN per USD if Banxico cut; Banxico cut 25 bp to 6.25% on 5 Nov effective 6 Nov. Indonesia: Mirae conditional ~Rp200 trillion / ~$11 billion IF MSCI Standalone, window ~June 2027 — estimate not actual outflow. Turkey: October CPI +2.58% m/m, annual 29.8%; BBVA year-end 30% forecast and 10 Dec hold call. Soft labels only — no WP headline, no chart.

JPMorgan’s 3 November Banxico cut warning, Mirae’s conditional Indonesia MSCI outflow estimate, and BBVA’s Turkey December hold call.

MoneyTurkey Foreign Markets Desk | Quick Wrap, 5 November 2026, 19:32 GMT

Mexico. JPMorgan warned that a Banxico rate cut could trigger a “disorderly” peso decline, potentially taking the dollar toward about 19.50 pesos. The warning, reported by El Economista on 3 November, was a conditional forecast ahead of the central bank’s decision — not a reported currency move. Banxico later cut the overnight target by 25 basis points to 6.25% on 5 November, effective 6 November, according to the official monetary policy statement.

Indonesia. Mirae Asset Sekuritas warned that roughly 200 trillion rupiah ($11 billion) in foreign funds could leave if MSCI reclassified Indonesia from Emerging Market to Standalone Market. Suara reported on 5 November that the brokerage put the decision window around June 2027. The estimate describes a possible outflow, not money already withdrawn.

Turkey. October inflation rose 2.58% month-on-month, taking the annual rate to 29.8%, according to BBVA Research (3 November). The bank retained a 30% year-end forecast and expects Turkey’s central bank to hold on 10 December, though it did not rule out a 1 percentage-point cut if energy and reserve pressures ease — a forecast, not a decision.

For information only. Not investment advice.

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