MoneyTurkey Foreign Markets Desk | 4 November 2026
Key points
- Saudi government oil revenue fell 23% year on year in Q3 2026 to SAR 116.5 billion (about $31.1 billion), from SAR 150.8 billion ($40.2 billion), Ministry of Finance data show.
- Non-oil revenue rose 20% to SAR 142.6 billion ($38.0 billion), more than oil brought in for the quarter.
- The Q3 budget deficit was SAR 84.3 billion ($22.5 billion), even as Aramco’s profits climbed.
Saudi Arabia’s oil income to the state fell sharply in the third quarter while Saudi Aramco reported higher profits. That gap matters for the kingdom’s borrowing needs and for Saudi sovereign dollar bonds.
What happened
The Ministry of Finance’s Q3 2026 budget performance report puts oil revenue at SAR 116,495 million for July–September, down 23% from SAR 150,816 million a year earlier. Total revenue was SAR 259.1 billion ($69.1 billion), down 4%. Spending fell 4% to SAR 343.4 billion ($91.6 billion), leaving a quarterly deficit of SAR 84.3 billion ($22.5 billion), slightly narrower than the SAR 88.5 billion ($23.6 billion) gap a year earlier.
Over the first nine months, oil revenue was SAR 446.3 billion ($119.0 billion), down 1.3% from SAR 452.4 billion ($120.6 billion). Non-oil revenue rose 8% to SAR 412.5 billion ($110.0 billion). The nine-month deficit reached SAR 244.3 billion ($65.1 billion), all financed by borrowing.
Aramco moved the other way. Asharq Al-Awsat reports that its net income rose 34.2% in the first nine months of 2026 to SAR 380.6 billion ($101.5 billion).
Why markets care
With oil receipts falling, Riyadh is leaning harder on borrowing to fund the gap. That keeps debt issuance, including dollar bonds, on the table unless spending is cut further. Financing expenses in the budget rose 38% year on year in the nine months to SAR 54.8 billion ($14.6 billion), the ministry’s report shows.
For the Saudi stock market (TASI), Aramco’s earnings are a support. Fiscal strain could weigh on sentiment if investors start to price higher sovereign risk.
Local context
Aramco’s profits do not reach the budget one-for-one. As Asharq Al-Awsat sets out, the state is paid through taxes, royalties and dividends, each with its own due and payment dates, and accounting profit does not turn into cash for the treasury in the same period. Budget figures record revenue actually collected, so Aramco’s earnings can rise in a quarter when the state’s oil take falls.
What to watch
- Q4 budget data and the 2027 budget statement
- New Saudi sovereign USD bond issuance
- Aramco dividend decisions and royalty terms
For information only. Not investment advice. USD figures converted at the SAR 3.75 peg.
Sources
- Saudi Ministry of Finance, Budget Quarterly Performance Report Q3 2026: https://www.mof.gov.sa/documents/328541/438987/Q3+Eng+2026++FINALL.pdf/4604908c-3f63-c0b7-ce05-d6f19e8d768a
- Arab News: https://www.arabnews.com/business/saudi-arabia-posts-2238bn-budget-deficit-in-q3-3009626
- Asharq Al-Awsat: https://english.aawsat.com/business/5337528-aramcos-profits-state-budget-revenue-how-do-oil-proceeds-reach-government-coffers
