Annual consumer prices rose to 29.77 percent in October from 29.73 percent in September, while monthly inflation accelerated to 2.58 percent, above the 2.2 percent forecast.
MoneyTurkey Economics Desk | 3 November 2026
Key points
- Türkiye’s annual consumer inflation edged up to 29.77 percent in October from 29.73 percent in September, while monthly price increases accelerated to 2.58 percent from 1.84 percent, the Turkish Statistical Institute said.
- Goods exports rose 8.1 percent year-on-year to a record $25.9 billion in October, narrowing the foreign trade deficit to $6.7 billion from $7.56 billion a year earlier.
Türkiye’s annual consumer inflation edged up to 29.77 percent in October from 29.73 percent in September, while monthly price increases accelerated to 2.58 percent from 1.84 percent, the Turkish Statistical Institute said. The monthly rise exceeded the 2.2 percent average forecast in Anadolu Agency’s survey of economists. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 3.5 percent on the month, contributing 0.84 percentage points to the overall increase. Transport prices increased 2.02 percent and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 2.84 percent, contributing 0.36 and 0.34 percentage points respectively.
What happened
The Turkish Statistical Institute reported that consumer prices rose 2.58 percent month-on-month in October, up from 1.84 percent in September. The annual rate eased from 32.87 percent recorded in October 2025 but increased slightly from 29.73 percent in September. The 12-month moving average inflation rate stood at 31.23 percent in October, while price gains since December of the previous year reached 27.52 percent.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages climbed 27.73 percent year-over-year, contributing 6.81 percentage points to the annual change. Transportation prices surged 36.39 percent annually, adding 6.1 percentage points to the overall index. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels jumped 40.24 percent compared to October 2025, contributing 4.71 percentage points.
On an annual basis, the highest price increase was recorded in education at 48.86 percent, followed by health at 43.29 percent and insurance and financial services at 31.41 percent. Clothing and footwear posted the lowest annual rise among expenditure categories at 13.38 percent.
What the numbers say
The core B index, which excludes unprocessed food, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, rose 2 percent month-on-month and 28.46 percent from a year earlier. Prices increased in 134 of the index’s 174 subclasses during October, declined in 29 and remained unchanged in 11.
The Turkish Trade Ministry reported that goods exports rose 8.1 percent year-on-year to a record $25.9 billion in October. Annualized goods exports climbed by $15.6 billion compared with October 2025 to reach $285.6 billion, surpassing the government’s target of $282 billion. Total annualized goods and services exports rose to $413 billion, exceeding the $410 billion target.
Imports increased 3.4 percent year-on-year in October to $32.58 billion. Consequently, the foreign trade deficit narrowed by 11.4 percent from October 2025 to $6.7 billion, down from $7.56 billion a year earlier. The total foreign trade volume expanded 5.4 percent annually to reach $58.47 billion in October. The export-to-import coverage ratio rose by 3.4 percentage points to 79.4 percent in October, while the ratio excluding energy stood at 100 percent and excluding both energy and gold reached 101.7 percent.
Why it matters
The acceleration in monthly inflation above the 2.2 percent forecast adds pressure on the central bank’s rate path. Food contributed 6.81 percentage points to annual inflation, followed by transport at 6.10 points and housing and utilities at 4.71 points. The consumer price index rose 27.52 percent from the end of 2025, while the increase in the 12-month average index stood at 31.23 percent.
In the first 10 months of 2026, exports grew 5.5 percent year-on-year to $236.84 billion, while imports rose 5.1 percent to $314.5 billion, resulting in a trade gap of $77.67 billion. Germany remained Türkiye’s top export destination in October with $2.07 billion, followed by the US with $1.86 billion and the UK with $1.38 billion. The top 10 export partners accounted for 45.3 percent of total goods shipments during the month.
On the import side, China ranked first with $4.41 billion in October, followed by Germany with $2.22 billion and the US with $1.77 billion. By country groups, the EU was the largest export market, receiving $10.4 billion in Turkish goods, followed by Near and Middle Eastern countries at $4.25 billion and other European nations at $3.74 billion. Asian countries formed the largest source of imports at $9.77 billion, followed by the EU at $9.39 billion.
What to watch
- November CPI release for signs of further monthly acceleration
- Trade Ministry data on November export and import volumes
- Central bank policy statement for any shift in rate outlook
- Food and energy price trends in the next TÜİK release
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For information only. Not investment advice.
Sources
- Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-03/turkey-inflation-quickens-unexpectedly-clouding-rate-path
- Hurriyet Daily News: https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkiyes-annual-inflation-edges-up-to-29-77-pct-228953
- Daily Sabah: https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/annual-inflation-in-turkiye-edges-up-slightly-to-2977-in-october
- Anadolu: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkiye-posts-record-october-goods-exports-of-259b/4109509
