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15:30 GMT · Markets wrap ›

Copper Recovers as Tech Rout Eases, Oil Drop Calms Growth Fears

fercan.yalinkilic
Copper futures (COMEX): price over the last sessions

LME copper futures rose after a sharp selloff in AI stocks and a drop in oil prices eased concerns about global demand.

MoneyTurkey Commodities Desk | 2 November 2026

Key points

  • Three-month copper futures settled at $14,154.50 a tonne on the LME after falling 1.4% on Friday.
  • Chinese buyers paid a record premium of over $200 a tonne to import copper, the highest since Fastmarkets data began in 2017.

Copper futures rebounded on Monday after a sharp drop in technology stocks and a decline in oil prices reduced fears of weaker global growth. The move came even as Chinese buyers paid a record premium of more than $200 a tonne to import the metal. Physical supply in China remains tight, with inventories down more than 25% to 54,356 tonnes.

What happened

Three-month copper futures on the LME fell 1.4% on Friday to close at $14,154.50 a tonne. The price is now below the September record of $14,875 a tonne. Spot copper traded more than $170 a tonne above the three-month contract, the widest gap since mid-August.

Chinese smelters cut output after refined copper production fell 1.1% year-on-year in the third quarter. Inventories in China dropped more than 25% to 54,356 tonnes. Global stocks still exceed 1.2 million tonnes, but most of the metal is held in the United States.

Miners sold off sharply. Southern Copper fell 7.42% and Freeport-McMoRan lost 5.55% on October 30. Guangzhou Futures Co. linked the decline to doubts over returns on AI spending after the tech rout.

What is driving prices

The Yangshan premium, which tracks the extra cost Chinese importers pay over LME prices, rose above $200 a tonne. The premium has more than doubled in three months and is up 700% since the start of 2026. Bloomberg tied Friday’s price drop to the tech selloff and oil at its highest since April.

Expected US tariffs on refined copper from January 2027 diverted hundreds of thousands of tonnes to the United States. Shanghai Metals Market said US stockpiles will remain in place until the White House rules on the proposed 15% tariff. An unfavourable Shanghai-to-London price ratio is expected to slow further gains in import premiums.

Extra supply from Africa could take one to two months to reach China. The Kobeissi Letter said the physical supply squeeze is far from over despite the global inventory overhang.

Why it matters

Copper is a key input for power grids, electric vehicles and data centres. A sustained premium above $200 a tonne signals that physical demand in China remains strong even as futures prices fall. Traders watch the Yangshan premium and LME inventory data for early signs of tightening or surplus.

The gap between spot and futures prices shows that available metal is moving to the United States ahead of possible tariffs. Any delay in African shipments or further cuts in Chinese smelter output could push the premium higher and support LME prices despite the macro concerns.

What to watch

  • Yangshan premium direction and LME-Shanghai arbitrage
  • US White House decision on 15% refined copper tariff
  • Weekly LME and SHFE inventory changes
  • African shipment arrivals into Chinese ports

For information only. Not investment advice.

Sources

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